{"id":35597,"date":"2023-10-25T21:37:31","date_gmt":"2023-10-25T21:37:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/innodebt.com\/news\/as-mike-johnson-becomes-house-speaker-analyst-puts-risk-of-government-shutdown-at-20-to-30\/"},"modified":"2023-10-25T21:37:34","modified_gmt":"2023-10-25T21:37:34","slug":"as-mike-johnson-becomes-house-speaker-analyst-puts-risk-of-government-shutdown-at-20-to-30","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/innodebt.com\/?p=35597","title":{"rendered":"As Mike Johnson becomes House speaker, analyst puts risk of government shutdown at 20% to 30%"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"js-article__body\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0002657245\" role=\"document\">\n<p>Could newly elected U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson deliver a partial government shutdown next month?<\/p>\n<p>Don\u2019t bet on it, according to some analysts.<\/p>\n<p>The lengthiness of the House Republicans\u2019 struggle to install a new speaker has helped bring down the chances for a shutdown when federal funding runs out Nov. 17, according to Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n<p>\u201cThe reason for that is the House generally, House Republicans specifically, can\u2019t walk and chew gum at the same time, so what you have is a situation where they haven\u2019t been doing work on the appropriations bills that they need to work on,\u201d Haines told MarketWatch during a Barron\u2019s Live interview on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat they\u2019re going to have to do is extend existing funding past Nov. 17 for a period of months to allow them to finish the job. So that shutdown risk is still probably in the 20% to 30% range, but it\u2019s much less than it was just a couple of weeks ago.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The GOP-run House has been consumed with working on settling on a new speaker since Oct. 3, when the chamber voted for the\u00a0historic ouster\u00a0of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a California Republican. Following McCarthy\u2019s ouster, Haines had put the likelihood of a shutdown in mid-November at 80%. <\/p>\n<p>Other analysts also were sounding optimistic Wednesday on the closure question.<\/p>\n<p>Johnson supports  a short-term budget bill, known as a continuing resolution or CR, that funds the government at current levels to either Jan. 15 or April 15, said Chris Krueger of TD Cowen\u2019s Washington Research Group in a note just before Johnson\u2019s election.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cProvided a speaker is elected this week, a shutdown on Nov. 17 seems unlikely; even the House GOP chaos agents who have pushed for a shutdown are exhausted,\u201d Krueger said. \u201cThe main fight around Nov. 17 will be the $106B military aid supplemental focused on Ukraine, Israel &amp; U.S.-Mexico border.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The federal government is funded until Nov. 17 because McCarthy, the former speaker, worked with House Democrats to pass a 45-day funding bridge on Sept. 30 that\u00a0averted a partial shutdown. But his maneuvers angered some hardline House Republicans, who then\u00a0led the drive to oust him.<\/p>\n<p> In Wednesday\u2019s interview, Haines also said that \u201cwhat markets need to know about Mr. Johnson is that they don\u2019t need to know very much about Mr. Johnson.\u201d He said he didn\u2019t mean to be unkind to the Louisiana lawmaker, but there can be \u201ca situation where speakers exist to be elected by coalitions within their own party, and the party structure ends up being more important than who the speaker is, and I think that\u2019s where we are now.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In addition, the Pangaea Policy founder said markets<br \/>\n        SPX<br \/>\n       are starting to become concerned for the first time in 40 or 50 years about the nation\u2019s fiscal deficit, debt and spending.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPolitical Washington doesn\u2019t get that at all. What markets are looking for is something fairly substantial that shows that Washington is paying attention to those things and not trying to let them run amok,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Now read:<\/strong> Biden says he\u2019s not worried House Speaker Johnson will try to throw out election results<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/as-mike-johnson-becomes-house-speaker-analyst-puts-risk-of-government-shutdown-at-20-to-30-f4b1dcc9?mod=economy-politics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Could newly elected U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson deliver a partial government shutdown next month? Don\u2019t bet on it, according to some analysts. The lengthiness of the House Republicans\u2019 struggle to install a new speaker has helped bring down the chances for a shutdown when federal funding runs out Nov. 17, according to Terry Haines, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":35598,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[38],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-35597","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>As Mike Johnson becomes House speaker, analyst puts risk of government shutdown at 20% to 30% | Innodebt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Could newly elected U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson deliver a partial government shutdown next month? 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