{"id":31911,"date":"2023-10-19T14:52:56","date_gmt":"2023-10-19T14:52:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/innodebt.com\/news\/u-s-leading-economic-indicators-point-lower-for-18th-straight-month-but-still-no-sign-of-recession\/"},"modified":"2023-10-19T14:52:58","modified_gmt":"2023-10-19T14:52:58","slug":"u-s-leading-economic-indicators-point-lower-for-18th-straight-month-but-still-no-sign-of-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/innodebt.com\/?p=31911","title":{"rendered":"U.S. leading economic indicators point lower for 18th straight month, but still no sign of recession"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

The numbers:<\/strong>\u00a0The leading economic index sank 0.7% in September and was negative for the 18th month in a row \u2014 but the U.S. is still on track to post a sizable increase in economic growth in the third quarter. <\/p>\n

Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.4% decline in the leading index, a gauge of 10 indicators designed to show whether the economy is getting better or worse.<\/p>\n

\n

A big losing streak typically foreshadows a recession, but the economy has continued to expand and many forecasters have dropped their recession calls.<\/p>\n

The latest forecasts suggest that gross domestic product, the official scorecard of the economy, is likely to expand at a hefty 4%-plus rate in the third quarter.<\/p>\n

Key details:<\/strong> A measure of current conditions, known as the coincident index, rose 0.3% in September.<\/p>\n

The so-called lagging index \u2014 a look in the rearview mirror \u2014 edged up 0.2% last month.<\/p>\n

Nine of the 10 indicators in the index were flat or declined in September.<\/p>\n

Big picture:<\/strong> The economy shows no sign of being on the verge of recession, but as some analysts note, the late stages of a business cycle rarely give clear hints of a pending downturn. <\/p>\n

The Federal Reserve has raised a key short-term interest rate to as high as 5.5% from near zero a year and a half ago, and it can take time for the full effects of such an increase to weigh on the economy. <\/p>\n

Looking ahead:<\/strong> \u201cSo far, the U.S. economy has shown considerable resilience despite pressures from rising interest rates and high inflation,\u201d said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at the Conference Board, which publishes the index.<\/p>\n

\u201cNonetheless, the Conference Board forecasts that this trend will not be sustained for much longer, and a shallow recession is likely in the first half of 2024,\u201d she said. <\/p>\n

Market reaction:<\/strong> The Dow Jones Industrial Average
\n DJIA
\n and S&P 500
\n SPX
\n rose slightly in Thursday trading.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The numbers:\u00a0The leading economic index sank 0.7% in September and was negative for the 18th month in a row \u2014 but the U.S. is still on track to post a sizable increase in economic growth in the third quarter. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.4% decline in the leading index, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":31912,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[38],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-31911","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news"},"yoast_head":"\nU.S. leading economic indicators point lower for 18th straight month, but still no sign of recession | Innodebt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The numbers:\u00a0The leading economic index sank 0.7% in September and was negative for the 18th month in a row \u2014 but the U.S. is still on track to post a\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/innodebt.com\/?p=31911\" 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